What it takes to make better decisions overall

By Brian Maynor

 

I don’t think anyone intentionally makes bad decisions, but it happens.

In order to make good decisions we need two things:  prediction and judgment.  Prediction helps us to see how different choices affect potential outcomes; while judgment helps us weigh the desirability of each of them.

Now, what if there was a way to improve these things so in turn we make better decisions?

Fortunately there are three ways we can improve our prediction and judgment.  Here they are:

1.   Be less confident.  It’s not often we hear that questioning and doubting ourselves are good things, but when it comes to decision making overconfidence leads to more bad decisions than doubt.  Interestingly, overconfidence is not a universal trait, but rather a pervasive quality among men, the wealthy and experts.  Culture and personality traits also play a factor in overconfidence.

Predicting outcomes seem fairly straight forward, Choice A leads to Outcome B, and Outcome B is better than Outcome C, so Choice A is the way to go, but that straightforwardness is actually overconfidence.  What if Choice A doesn’t lead to Outcome B or if Outcome B isn’t as preferable as Outcome C?

Maybe we need to ask an additional question:  “What happens if we get a completely different outcome than the one expected?”  Accepting the fact that we build overconfidence in our prediction is the first step to negate it.

2.    Consider similar situations.  One of the key factors in making predictions is to examine and consider how similar situations play out.  In other words, “How often does our prediction typically happen?”  This question works equally well with evaluating judgments as it does with predictions.

The trick to making this shift in analysis is to adopt an ‘outside view’ approach as opposed to an ‘inside view’.  With an ‘outside view’ analysis we start with the comparable situations, which make us less likely to let the specifics of our situation cloud our thinking.

3.    Spend some time learning about probability.  Even the most basic understanding of probability helps us be better forecasters by avoiding various cognitive biases according to Philip Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania researcher and author of Expert Political Judgment.  When we start thinking more probabilistically we actually improve the first two skills, because we are better able to express our doubt and asses the likelihood of repeating the outcome of similar situations.  Again, this doesn’t mean we need to become experts in the field.  A simple understanding is all we need to make a big difference.

Following these rules may not have us making better decisions immediately, but consistency is key.  These are rules to literally live by when making decisions on all levels.  Not just the hard ones.

 

Click here or on the images below to learn more about the outfit.

 

Click here or on the images below to learn more about the outfit.

 

 

I am always curious to hear about your weekend wardrobe dilemmas and help make your work wardrobe pull double duty.  Email your questions, quandaries and conundrums to [email protected].  Also find each of these storyboards at http://brianmaynor.polyvore.com with links to purchase each item.

 

About Brian Maynor

Brian Maynor has built a reputation as one of the leading style coaches in the Southeast and is quickly expanding his eponymous company, BRIAN MAYNOR and his FIND, FLATTER & FLAUNT line of image consulting services. A professional with a fresh, upbeat and down-to-earth personality and boundless creative energy, he works frequently with with local celebrities; Fortune 500 companies and nonprofit organizations; modeling agencies; fashion designers; production companies; record labels; media and individuals. A regular contributor to various fashion blogs and online communities, Brian Maynor is one of the most trusted and recognized style experts in the region, utilizing his education and training as a broadcast journalist to serve as a style lecturer, emcee, and commentator for over a decade. He has appeared at fashion shows, expos, and charity fundraisers, as well as events with big brands like Banana Republic, Ann Taylor, Chico’s and Macy’s. His approach is innovative, creative and fashion-forward, balancing fresh, modern styles with classic pieces to keep one’s look grounded. To learn more, visit http://www.brianmaynor.com.

 

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