Charleston Metro Chamber releases 2021 Economic Forecast

The Charleston Metro Chamber presented the 2021 Economic Forecast at its 30th Annual Economic Outlook Conference held virtually on Wednesday. The forecast for the Charleston region is a partnership project between the Charleston Metro Chamber’s Center for Business Research and the College of Charleston School of Business.

Dr. Alan Shao, Dean of the College of Charleston School of Business and Jacki Renegar, Director of the Center for Business Research, presented 2020 data from key economic indicators that drive the region’s economy and predictions for those indicators for 2021 and 2022.

2020 brought on many unexpected challenges, propelling the nation into a recession, while unemployment rates hit record highs. However, the strength of our diverse economy has allowed the Charleston region to be resilient. While some sectors have seen tremendous losses, we anticipate a healthy recovery.

Highlights from the 2021 Economic Forecast:

• Even with some months showing significant COVID-related declines, the Charleston region’s labor force remained stable overall during 2020, compared to 2019. Local labor force is predicted to grow by 1% in 2021 and 2022, as employment grows at 2-2.5% each year, returning to growth levels of 7,000 to 9,000 jobs per year.
• While retail sales saw an overall decrease of about 12%, consumer spending is indicating a positive outlook. It is forecasted that retail sales will see an increase of 2.5-3% this year.
• The Charleston Metro Area was named one of the ‘Top Ten Metro Markets During and In a Post-COVID Environment in 2021-2022’ by the National Association of Realtors.
• Despite the pandemic, homes in the Charleston Metro Area sold at record levels in 2020, and the forecast for 2021 and 2022 is for local home sales to increase by 3.5% and 1.5%, respectively. The continued demand will also elevate prices as inventory shrinks, which will only further exacerbate our housing attainability crisis.
• The Charleston International Airport’s 2020 activity was cut by more than half as both domestic and global air travel came nearly to a halt for many months. As 2021 progresses, travel is expected to begin to resume, with increased passenger volumes of about 10-15% each year as the world gets back to traveling.

“Before the pandemic, the Charleston region had a healthy, thriving economy,” said Jacki Renegar, Director of the Center for Business Research. “It is this foundation that will allow for a quick recovery. There have been many great lessons and innovations that will improve the resiliency of our region and ensure a prosperous future.”

The forecast is based upon historical data tracked and collected by the Center for Business Research. Data reported by national and state agencies, such as employment, inflation and interest rates, are downloaded directly from those agencies. Data on each of the key economic indicators that drive the region’s economy are collected and provided to the College of Charleston School of Business. An econometric forecasting model is used to develop a projection for each indicator. The model also takes into account national indicators.

The key to the success of the forecasting project has been the Economic Outlook Board, comprised of local business leaders from every major economic sector. Their collective insight provides information that may not be picked up in a statistical analysis of the data. The Board often has information on future developments that no statistical model would capture. Additionally, the data is often reported in a lag – the Economic Outlook Board reviews the statistical forecast and adds the “real-time, real-knowledge” insight into the actual performance of the economy.For more information or to view the forecast, visit www.charlestonchamber.org/economicforecast.

About the Charleston Metro Chamber

With approximately 1,600 member organizations representing 160,000 professionals, the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce serves as the collective voice of the business community, and a catalyst for regional economic advancement and member success through Talent, Advocacy, Leadership and Business Development. Visit charlestonchamber.org.