Short-Term Energy Outlook
November 13, 2008
WASHINGTON, DC – November 12, 2008 – The current U.S. and global economic downturn has led to a decrease in global energy demand and a rapid and substantial reduction in crude oil and other energy prices.
Highlights
The current U.S. and global economic downturn has led to a decrease in global energy demand and a rapid and substantial reduction in crude oil and other energy prices. As a result, projections for both energy demand and prices are considerably lower than last month’s Outlook.
The monthly average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell from over $133 per barrel in July to about $77 per barrel in October, indicative of the abrupt decline in world petroleum demand growth. The annual average WTI price is now projected to be $101.45 per barrel in 2008 and $63.50 in 2009.
The average U.S. prices for regular-grade gasoline and diesel fuel, at $2.22 and $2.94 per gallon respectively on November 10, were both more than $1.80 per gallon below their highs in mid-July. With a weak economy continuing through most of 2009, along with lower projected crude oil prices, the annual average retail gasoline and diesel prices in 2009 are projected to be $2.37 and $2.73 per gallon, respectively.
Residential heating oil prices during the current heating season (October though March) are projected to average $2.75 per gallon, a reduction of about 17 percent from the 2007-2008 heating season. Residential propane prices are projected to average $2.22 this winter, a decrease of 10 percent from last winter. Residential natural gas prices are projected to average $13.02 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), an increase of 2 percent from last winter.
The impact of the economic downturn on demand is also lowering current and expected natural gas prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to average $9.27 per Mcf in 2008. The projected 2009 annual average Henry Hub price is $6.82 per Mcf compared with $8.17 in the previous Outlook.
To see details of this forecast update, go to the following World Wide Web site on the Internet:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
