Former White House economic advisor predicts end to ‘Great Recession’
January 26, 2011
CLINTON – A former White House staffer and professor emeritus at Clemson University brought goods news Tuesday to Presbyterian College – the end of the “Great Recession” is near.
In a presentation sponsored by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, former executive director of the Federal Trade Commission Dr. Bruce Yandle said there are numerous reasons to believe the U.S. economy is improving and will fully recover.
A self-proclaimed optimist, Yandle said that while unemployment nationally hovers around 10 percent, it means conversely that 90 percent of the workforce has jobs. He also stated that, as the third most populous country in the world, the U.S. derives its greatest wealth from its massive workforce.
There are constraints and challenges, Yandle said. An “explosion” of federal regulations that started in the 1970s impedes growth, he said, as does the size of the federal deficit – approximately 11 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.
And despite proclamations last fall that the recession is over, Yandle said, “people don’t pay attention to what a lot of pointy-headed experts say” and have yet to demonstrate confidence in the economy as consumers.
In the middle of the country – in the “large square states” like South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming – energy production in oil, natural gas, and coal is on the rise, while its workforce boasts the country’s highest rate of educational attainment, said Yandle. This is good news for college graduates, he said.
“In a knowledge economy, you’ve got to have knowledge,” he said. “You’ve got to have brains.”
Yandle said a demographic look at unemployment rates should sober any young person not thinking about advancing their educations. The unemployment rate nationally is 9.4 percent; however it is only 4.8 percent for people who have a bachelor’s degree or higher degree. The unemployment rate for people who have an associate’s degree is 8.1 percent and is 9.8 percent for people who have only earned a high school diploma.
For people who haven’t finished high school, the unemployment rate is a staggering 15.3 percent.
Even as South Carolina is predicted to lag a little behind the nation’s recovery, Yandle said the state should be back on solid economic footing no later than 2013. Using “naïve forecasts,” or predicting future trends based on past trends, the recession already has bottomed out and should begin a steady recovery. Hazards to that recovery – more regulations and unchecked federal deficits – are still threats, he said.
