Robert Samuelson November 6, 2013

By now, it’s obvious that the economic crisis is evolving intosomething bigger and, possibly, more ominous. The aftershock of thefinancial collapse and Great Recession has been so severe and stubbornthat it has spawned profound political and psychological spillovers.Distrust of government and pessimism about the future are growing.There’s a mounting sense that governments have lost control over events. This fosters a broader alienation from authority.

The wonder is that (so far) all this dissatisfaction has notproduced a more powerful political backlash. In the United States, there is the tea party, and there are fringe movements elsewhere. But ingeneral, mainstream political parties have retained control ofgovernment, as this week’s elections remind us. Whether this continuesis an open question, because we seem caught in a vicious circle. Weakeconomies breed pessimism, and pessimism keeps economies weak — whichstrengthens the appeal of populist and fringe movements.

Thelatest evidence of this cycle comes in a report from the Organisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris. The report —called “How’s Life? 2013: Measuring Well-Being” — was initially inspired by the belief that affluence in most wealthysocieties could be taken for granted and that countries’ successcouldn’t be judged only in economic terms. So the report assembles botheconomic statistics (income, unemployment) and other measures (voterturnout, people’s ratings of personal satisfaction).

The resultsoften reveal quirky differences among countries. Consider thisintriguing fact about Japan. It has one of the world’s longest lifeexpectancies, 83 years at birth. Despite that, average Japanese ratetheir own health as the poorest of 35 countries ranked. Conversely,Americans rank first in self-reported health even though their lifeexpectancy, 79, trails Japan’s significantly.

But the irony ofthis year’s report is that the most interesting findings involve whathappens when affluence no longer seems assured. Confidence in government has plunged. In 2012, only 40 percent of people in OECD countriestrusted their government. In some countries, figures were lower. In2012, it was 35 percent for the United States, down from a recent highof 50 percent in 2009. In Japan, it was 17 percent in 2012, down from 25 percent in 2009.

Hope is fading. In a poll of 39 countries,people in only nine expected their “life satisfaction” to be better infive years than it is today. Even those who have jobs feel more stressed than before the economic crisis. One survey of perceived conflictsbetween work and family found they increased in virtually all Europeancountries between 2004 and 2010.

There is nothing irreversibleabout these trends, but whether they are reversed is another matter. The report notes that in OECD countries there are about 16 million moreunemployed than there were before the economic crisis. Some wealthycountries (Germany, Sweden) escaped the worst of the downturn; most didnot. People are re-evaluating what they can expect as normal andrealistic. The future of the political order depends in part on how well the economic order revives.