Forecasters Predict Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but Officials Urge Preparation

Meteorologists and emergency management officials are offering a cautious outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. While leading weather agencies predict a lower-than-average number of named storms, emergency management experts warn coastal residents against letting their guard down.

2026 HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTIONS

According to seasonal outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU), atmospheric conditions—primarily the emergence of an El Niño weather pattern—are expected to suppress storm development across the Atlantic basin. Stronger wind shear associated with El Niño tends to tear apart organizing tropical systems before they can intensify.

NOAA places the probability of a below-normal season at 55%, with a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. Forecasters project 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, compared to historical averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

“It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active and devastating season for your community,” emphasized Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. “Thorough preparations should be made every season regardless of predicted activity levels.”

ESSENTIAL HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS CHECKLIST

Disaster preparedness officials recommend completing key safety precautions well before tropical weather threatens land:

1. BUILD AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT

Ensure your household has supplies to remain self-sufficient for 3 to 7 days:

• Water: Minimum of 1 gallon per person per day.

• Food: Non-perishable items, canned goods, and a manual can opener.

• Power & Flashlights: Battery-powered or hand-crank radio, flashlights, and extra power banks for cellular phones.

• Medical Supplies: First-aid supplies and a minimum 14-day supply of essential prescription medications.

2. KNOW YOUR EVACUATION ZONE & ROUTE

• Determine if you reside in a surge or flood evacuation zone.

• Plan primary and alternate evacuation routes out of vulnerable coastal areas.

• Establish a family communication plan and designate an out-of-area point of contact.

3. SAFEGUARD PROPERTY AND INSURANCE RECORDS

• Review homeowners, renters, and flood insurance policies to confirm adequate coverage. Standard insurance policies typically do not cover flood damage.

• Secure vital records (IDs, insurance documents, medical history) in waterproof containers or cloud storage.

• Inspect property exterior: trim overhanging branches, clear gutters, and inspect hurricane shutters or plywood panels.